June Juice – June 16th
Records
Caz: 5–6 | + $1,702
TB: 4–8 | – $468
TB’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (vs. Miami Marlins)
Odds: PHI @ 1.79
Wager Placed: 5x $500
Liquidation: 2.24 | To Win: +$1,990
Analysis
For the first time during this challenge, someone’s in the negative — and it’s THIS GUY. But I’m not backing off. I’m swinging for the fences with a 5x play until one connects. Next up: Philadelphia over Miami.
I love this young Phillies pitcher Mick Abel. He’s been pounding the strike zone — and that’s a perfect fit against a low-contact Marlins lineup.
Here’s how the matchup breaks down:
- Abel vs. RHH: .315 wOBA (comparable to Sandy Alcántara’s .306)
- Abel vs. LHH: .303 wOBA with a 30% strikeout rate (much stronger than Sandy’s 15% K rate)
Half of Miami’s lineup will bat left-handed, and I think Abel can cruise with a low pitch count, which is crucial when riding a 5x bet. Low-scoring Phillies win incoming. Philly’s bats are better, and Schwarber is back to lead the charge.
Caz’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (vs. Miami Marlins)
Odds: PHI @ -126
Wager Placed: 2x $500
Liquidation: +265 | To Win: $790
I’m Feeling the Phillies
1. Alcántara Is in a Tailspin
- Ugly stat line: 7.14 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 50 earned runs in 63 innings — bottom tier in MLB
- No command: 17 walks in 38⅓ innings, plus brutal pitch location
- Down bad: Reddit calls him “the worst pitcher in the league,” and prop markets expect 5.5+ hits and 2.5+ earned runs allowed
2. Phillies Offense Heating Up
- Star power: With Schwarber and Trea Turner leading the charge, this lineup is locked in
- Trend alert: Philly has won 71% of games when favored in this range
- Abel holding it down: The rookie has a 2.35 ERA over 15⅓ innings — he’s been steady and efficient
3. Numbers and Market Back Philly
- Moneyline edge: Sitting at –129 implies a ~56% win probability
- ESPN projection: Phillies have a 60.8% chance to win
- Run line lean: Bookmakers expect a multi-run win
Final Word
Tonight is Philly’s shot to capitalize on one of the league’s weakest starters. Alcántara’s control is off, hard contact is up, and his post-surgery inconsistency is glaring. With a locked-in offense, an efficient rookie on the mound, and favorable odds, the Phillies are the play in Game 1.
