June Juice – June 18th
Records
Caz: 7–6 | + $3,314
TB: 5–9 | + $1,022
TB’s Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline (vs. Miami Marlins)
Odds: PHI @ 1.52
Wager Placed: 5x $500
Liquidation: 1.89 | To Win: +$1,310
Analysis
We’ll start with the pitchers. Ranger Suárez takes the mound for Philadelphia, and he’s been outstanding all season — especially in generating weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
Suárez 2025 Splits:
- vs. RHH: .274 wOBA | 21% K rate | 1.63 GB/FB
- vs. LHH: .167 wOBA | 26% K rate | 2.33 GB/FB
Suárez has been phenomenal at inducing ground balls, and that should continue against a Marlins lineup that struggles to lift the ball. Add in the pitcher-friendly environment in Miami, and this looks like a great spot for him to go deep into the game while limiting damage.
On the other side, Adam Mazur is still a bit of an unknown at the major league level. He made a brief debut last year where he struggled with command and got hit hard. This will be his first start of 2025, and I’m not expecting a big step forward. While he’s shown slightly better control in Triple-A, he’s still prone to giving up home runs and carries a low strikeout rate.
The Phillies lineup should have no trouble putting the ball in play, creating pressure, and keeping traffic on the bases throughout the night.
This sets up as a game where Philly scores early and doesn’t let up. Suárez gives them a real chance to take control, and I’m riding with a full-risk 5x wager on the Phillies to get it done.
Caz’s Pick: Washington Nationals (vs. Colorado Rockies)
Odds: WSH @ -158
Wager Placed: 3x $500
Liquidation: +148 | To Win: $950
Nationals vs Rockies: Why Washington Has the Edge
Marquez’s Night & Road Nightmare
- In night games, Marquez checks in with a staggering 8.39 ERA, allowing 42 earned runs over just 39⅔ innings.
- Away from Coors Field, his ERA is even worse at 7.91, with 34 earned runs in 38⅔ innings.
- Simply put: throw a road night game at this rocky right-hander, and he’s wildly hittable.
Washington's Friendly Turf
- The matchup hits at Nationals Park — exactly where Marquez tends to struggle most. Extra daylight, thinner air, more mistakes.
- Historically, he’s 2–4 with a 8.29 ERA in seven career starts against Washington.
Washington's Momentum Advantage
- Sure, the Nats are in a slump — but at home, they’ve been marginally better.
- Their starter, Mitchell Parker (4–7, 4.84 ERA), may be shaky, but he’s more reliable on their mound than Marquez is anywhere.
The Bottom Line
Marquez’s inflated road-night ERA (8–9 +) lines up with his subpar history in D.C. That’s enough raw edge for Washington. Even a streaking Rockies lineup might crack him — expectations aren’t high either way — but the Nats get the bounce back win here.
Call it: Nationals win, powered by Marquez’s glaring flaws under the lights and in enemy territory.
Key Stats at a Glance
- 8.39 ERA in night games → Marquez turns nighttime into run-scored time
- 7.91 ERA on the road → he’s even worse away from Coors
- 2–4, 8.29 ERA vs Washington all-time → small sample, big trouble
